{"id":2868,"date":"2018-01-26T14:01:14","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T14:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifff-server3.boku.ac.at\/wordpress\/?page_id=2868"},"modified":"2025-03-06T16:44:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T16:44:16","slug":"predispossition-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/ifff-server.boku.ac.at\/wordpress\/?page_id=2868","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e4disposition"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"2868\" class=\"elementor elementor-2868\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dd88ee7 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"dd88ee7\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0c31403 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"0c31403\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-77e1aa73 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"77e1aa73\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Pr\u00e4disposition von Fichtenbest\u00e4nden f\u00fcr Befall durch Buchdrucker (PAS)<\/h3><h4>Konzept Risiko\/Pr\u00e4disposition<\/h4><p>Das Risiko von Waldsch\u00e4den h\u00e4ngt von der Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens von St\u00f6rfaktoren, der generellen Anf\u00e4lligkeit von Best\u00e4nden f\u00fcr bestimmte Schaderreger und den Bewirtschaftungszielen bzw. Waldfunktionen, die auf dem Spiel stehen, ab (siehe Abb.1). Dieses Konzept der Kombination pr\u00e4disponierender, ausl\u00f6sender und mitwirkender Faktoren geht auf Manion (1991) zur\u00fcck und impliziert, dass die Pr\u00e4disposition von W\u00e4ldern f\u00fcr Sch\u00e4den via waldbaulicher Eingriffe wie Standorts- und Baumartenwahl, Durchforstungs- und Erntema\u00dfnahmen aktiv, sowohl im positiven als auch negativen Sinn ver\u00e4ndert werden kann. Voraussetzung f\u00fcr eine effektive Schadensprophylaxe ist somit das Verst\u00e4ndnis der komplexen Zusammenh\u00e4nge zwischen pr\u00e4disponierenden Bestandes-Charakteristika und der Vielzahl an potentiellen abiotischen und biotischen Schadverursachern, die nicht alle durch gleiche Ma\u00dfnahmen \u00e4hnlich beeinflusst werden (Netherer und Nopp-Mayr 2005; Jactel et al., 2009).<\/p><h4>Pr\u00e4dispositions-Absch\u00e4tzung (PAS)<\/h4><p>Wissensbasierte Expertensysteme setzen auf allgemeing\u00fcltige Zusammenh\u00e4nge (basierend auf Meta-Analysen von Fachliteratur und\/oder Experten-Interviews) und sollen auf transparente Weise den forstlichen Entscheidungsprozess unterst\u00fctzen. PAS (predisposition assessment system) ist ein Bonus-Malus System im Sinne von Berryman (1986) und Speight and Wainhouse (1989), welches aktuell und potentiell gef\u00e4hrdende Bestandeseigenschaften und somit die M\u00f6glichkeiten der Vorbeugung oder Verringerung von Sch\u00e4den direkt aufzeigt. Standorts- und Bestandes-Merkmale werden je nach ihrem Einfluss auf das spezifische St\u00f6rungselement unterschiedlich gewichtet und skaliert. Die Summe aller Pr\u00e4dispositionspunkte, die spezifischen Bestandes-Charakteristika zugeordnet sind, ergibt das Gef\u00e4hrdungs-Ausma\u00df, i.e. die Wahrscheinlichkeit, einer St\u00f6rung f\u00fcr eine konkrete Waldfl\u00e4che (F\u00fchrer und Nopp, 2001).<\/p><h4>PAS \u2013 Buchdrucker, Ips typographus<\/h4><p>Abbildung 2 gibt einen \u00dcberblick \u00fcber die wichtigsten Indikatoren der stand\u00f6rtlichen und bestandesbezogenen Pr\u00e4disposition f\u00fcr Befall durch <em>I. typographus<\/em>. Die unterschiedliche Gewichtung spezifischer Bestandeseigenschaften ist grafisch anhand des Parameters Wasserhaushalt dargestellt (Abb. 3). \u00dcbersichtskarten veranschaulichen die Gef\u00e4hrdung von Fichtenbest\u00e4nden f\u00fcr Buchdruckerbefall in einer bestimmten Region (Abb. 4).<\/p><h4>Literatur<\/h4><p><strong>Berryman A.A. 1986.<\/strong> Forest Insects. Principles and Practice of Population Management. Plenum Press, New York\/London.<\/p><p><strong>F\u00fchrer E., Nopp U. 2001.<\/strong> Ursachen, Vorbeugung und Sanierung von Waldsch\u00e4den. Facultas-Univ. Verlag, Wien, 514 S.<\/p><p><strong>Jactel H., Nicoll B.C., Branco M., Gonzalez-Olabarria J.R., Grodzki W., Langstr\u00f6m B., Moreira F., Netherer S., Orazio C., Piou D., Santos H., Schelhaas M.J., Tojic K., Vodde F. 2009.<\/strong> The influences of forest stand management on biotic and abiotic risks of damage. Ann.For.Sci.66: 1\u201318.<\/p><p><strong>Manion P.D. 1991.<\/strong> Tree Disease concepts. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.<\/p><p><strong>Netherer S., Nopp-Mayr U. 2005.<\/strong> Predisposition assessment systems (PAS) as supportive tools in forest management\u2014rating of site and stand-related hazards of bark beetle infestation in the High Tatra Mountains as an example for system application and verification. For. Ecol. Manage. 207, 99\u2013107.<\/p><p><strong>Speight M., Wainhouse D. 1989.<\/strong> Ecology and Management of Forest Insects. Clarendon Press, Oxford.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-76ae96b e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"76ae96b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-08ac49d elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"08ac49d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"308\" src=\"https:\/\/ifff-server.boku.ac.at\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/201801risk_de.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-36\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-732d753 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"732d753\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Abb. 1: Pr\u00e4disposition von Waldbest\u00e4nden f\u00fcr Schadfaktoren als Risiko-Komponente, die durch waldbauliche Ma\u00dfnahmen beeinflusst werden kann (nach Jactel et al., 2009<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4505598 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"4505598\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"763\" src=\"https:\/\/ifff-server.boku.ac.at\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/indikatoren_praed-Ips.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-40\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d248262 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d248262\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Abb. 2: \u00dcberblick \u00fcber die wichtigsten Indikatoren der stand\u00f6rtlichen und bestandesbezogenen Pr\u00e4disposition<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f1d4cc3 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"f1d4cc3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"763\" src=\"https:\/\/ifff-server.boku.ac.at\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/201801modell_buchdrucker.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-30\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-92ca9ff elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"92ca9ff\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Abb. 3: Unterschiedliche Gewichtung spezifischer Bestandeseigenschaften<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e50087c elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e50087c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/ifff-server.boku.ac.at\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/standort_praed.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-101\" alt=\"\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6a87db0 elementor-widget__width-initial elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6a87db0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Abb. 4: \u00dcbersichtskarte der Gef\u00e4hrdung von Fichtenbest\u00e4nden f\u00fcr Buchdruckerbefall in einer bestimmten Region<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pr\u00e4disposition von Fichtenbest\u00e4nden f\u00fcr Befall durch Buchdrucker (PAS) Konzept Risiko\/Pr\u00e4disposition Das Risiko von Waldsch\u00e4den h\u00e4ngt von der Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":3214,"menu_order":1,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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